Floods &
Debts
in Pakistan
By Chelsea Watson, Rameez Shafqat, Shuyao Xiao
The 2022 Flood in Pakistan
In 2022, Pakistan experienced an unprecedented climate-fueled disaster in which heavy rains, flash flooding, and landslides impacted 33 million people. The impacts of these floods led to the displacement of around 7.9 million people, injured over 12,800, and killed more that 1,600 people. In addition to human injuries, fatalities and displacement, the flood impacted housing and infrastructure, agriculture and livestock, and pushed millions more people into poverty. At the time of these floods, Pakistan was already experiencing an economic crisis and just recovering from the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
While in many ways unprecedented, the floods in Pakistan provide a window into the future under continued global economic inequality, public health crises, and an increasingly unstable climate due to man-made climate change and overlapping ecological crises. With this in mind, our group intends to focus our research on responses to the 2022 floods in Pakistan, looking specifically at community-led responses as well as responses led by the state via the National Disaster Management Authority. By comparing community and government responses, we hope to better understand examples of how state and community-based governance structures shape the responses to climate-fueled crises. Furthermore, we hope our research can contribute to global climate justice by unveiling the systemic issues at play and contextualizing these moments of crisis in the broader global governance system.
We conducted this research as graduate students at the New School in New York, NY. While comparing community and government responses, we looked at pre flood preparedness, rescue & relief during the flood, and post flood rehabilitation. We conducted our research through interviews with community members and government officials, literature reviews, and scholarly research.
Literature Review on Community and Government Responses to 2022 Floods in Pakistan: Scholarship, NGOs, Media
In the wake of the 2022 floods in Pakistan, academic scholars focused their analyses and recommendations on frameworks ranging from proper medical camp set up (Amin et al. 2023) and better weather forecasting and communication (Malik et al. 2023), to social and cultural factors in disaster preparedness (Shah et al. 2023) and the role of government and finance in resilience and adaptation (Ahmed and Irshad 2023). This scholarship appears geared towards government officials who seek out specific guides from a technical and management perspective.
International NGOs issued reports that ranged from lauding “when local organizations really lead” (OxFam 2023) to “lessons on communication” (CDAC 2023) to detailing exact funding and people requirements needed to enact a full recovery (OCHA 2022). International NGOs appear to jump to recommendations briskly, whether by claiming that their strategy was successful in the case of OxFam or immediately quantifying the enormous funds and staff needed in the case of OCHA. Both academic and NGO literature on the 2022 floods focuses on the point of crisis and the conditions immediately leading up to the disaster.
Media outlets covered the 2022 floods from a range of perspectives. Many sources focused on the climate crisis as the “prime suspect” for the devastating floods (Guardian 2022, CNN 2022). Other publications, such as Dawn, emphasized climate change, illegal land development in floodplains, and lack of government preparedness (Dawn 2022). They have also emphasized gender-sensitive approaches and public-private partnerships (Dawn 2023). In addition, Dawn has reported on the IMF’s new mandate for Pakistan that it must present a budget plan for climate adaptation in their next budget. Conversely, the Committee for Abolition of Illegitimate Debt reported that “After the floods, Pakistan needs reparations, not charity” (CADTM 2022), but this framing of the crisis is largely absent in mainstream outlets, especially in the immediate aftermath.
The literature documents the failure of the government to respond adequately to a climate-fueled disaster and the severe impact on Pakistani people, livestock, and environment. From our perspective, a significant gap lies in connecting the severity of this disaster to the long history of colonialism which has directly resulted in present day Pakistan’s struggling political system, mounting debt, and climate instability. Pakistan’s current government is a holdover from British colonial rule, Pakistan’s debt is a direct result of global financial and economic policy through institutions such as the IMF, and Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change is a consequence of centuries of ecologically unequal exchange (Ajl 2021). Pakistan has contributed less than one percent of all greenhouse gas emissions yet are 15 times more likely to die from climate-related disasters than people elsewhere (Aljazeera 2023). In our section on global governance, we will examine more closely how this disaster is an example of climate injustice by way of neocolonialism and global capitalism.
Critical disaster theorist, Rhiannon Firth, argues that mainstream disaster studies subordinate non-state actors to a securitized and centralized disaster agency that specializes in social control (Firth 2022). Instead, she understands non-state actors as capable of spontaneous horizontal governance in the wake of crises, and as serving not just as a supplement to the state, but as an alternative. Scholar Oheneba Boateng calls for “homegrown” solutions that are independent of the state and international humanitarian actors and argues that a stable state is required for success. Tahir Ali et al. focus on Indigenous perspectives to disaster response and preparedness, arguing that common Western ideologies in disaster response–such as individualism–are wholly unsuitable in Indigenous environments where values and ideologies such as elder wisdom and social bonds take precedence.
These critical perspectives encourage us to listen for and center the values present in community disaster responses and deconstruct any potential Western assumptions around responses to disasters, whether in our lens as researchers or in existing literature. They also encourage us to interrogate the role of the state in disaster responses, and envision non-state actors, (for the purpose of this study – community members) as not subordinated to the existing state infrastructure, but as a powerful part of an alternative system.
With this background, we will build on the history of critical disaster response literature by centering the work of community members, rather than subordinating their work to state responses. We will also critically examine the role of colonialism, global economic governance, and climate debt to place the 2022 floods in Pakistan in the large context of global climate injustice. We believe this study can provide a window towards the vast histories and systems at play in other sites of climate injustice, where exploited communities face intersecting crises with the shared root causes of colonialism and capitalism. Perhaps through a shared understanding of these root causes, we can be better equipped to see and envision viable alternatives to these overlapping crises, whether in Pakistan or elsewhere.
What People Are Saying
“There was no formal collaboration between the community and the govt. The govt joined hands with those who were influential. The member of the provincial assembly from our area was in his own hometown instead of being with us. The local govt is not empowered enough here but it helped in identifying the destitute families when a damage survey was done.”
— Community member, Larkana District
“We saw it on social media as mainstream media was not covering it.”
— Mr. Umar Masood, Southern Punjab
“We were able to provide relief after 15 days as all roads were inundated.”
— Mr. Salman Shah, DG PDMA Sind
“The Govt was giving very small quantities to distribute but the affected were in thousands around us. Therefore, we refused to accept the government aid as it would have led to commotion.”
— Mr. Ghulam Yaseen, Larkana District
“Our elected representative to the National Assembly visited the area and people were outraged about the govt response. He said, ‘If your problems can be solved by throwing me in the flood water then please throw me.’”
— Mr. Rizwan Ashraf, Southern Punjab
“We used to estimate 80,000 families displacement due to typical monsoon floods but we ended up with 2 Million families.”
— Mr. Salman Shah, DG PDMA Sind
Why has flood water in Sindh not flowed away yet
Transcription in English: “It's been more than 6 months but flood waters have not receded in Sind yet. To find out whether there was a lot of rain or there were other issues like drainage etc., we were on our way to the city of Kher Pur Meers when we saw this huge quantity of stagnant water in front of us. There used to be a paved road here and now people are trying to build a path through the water on their own by collecting charity.
Interestingly, all this water is not accumulated here due to the rains only. There are big Zamindars ( Big landlords) around who have their private dams. They influenced authorities to breach a local canal near us and saved their agriculture and dams. We were inundated right at 2 am in the night. There were many casualties and our houses were destroyed. The water has still not receded because there were drainage pipes leading to a canal which were choked by the influentials to save themselves. When we reached the city, there was stagnant water in various places due to the poor drainage system. A drainage scheme was built in 2014 but that was lying redundant as well. During the floods, the city was inundated and the water was drained through a temporary pipeline.
Fida Hussain, a small farmer, works as a laborer who used to earn millions of Rupees. His farms are still under water along with others and is waiting for the Govt help. On the other hand, it seems that the Govt has no plans to drain these waters and is perhaps waiting for its evaporation.
The experts say that Sind has a poor drainage network. The damage could have been reduced if the system was upgraded. Manchar Lake is one of the largest lakes in Pakistan and is a lifeline for thousands of people. This lake gets water from hill torrents, channels, and rains. The excess water from this lake should be directed towards the Indus River but the existing drainage canal has very little capacity to do that. That is why, there was a fear during the floods that the Lake shall burst on many points. So, the Government itself breached this lake on two points leading to the inundation of many villages and towns.
Mr. Mola Bakhsh is a fisherman and is running the Save Manchar movement. His family has been living for decades in the lake. He says that there was a lot of water coming into the lake but not leaving. There was another canal built to carry the hill torrents directly to the Indus River thus bypassing the lake but the canal was dysfunctional. On top of that, the Indus River was having a high level of flood at that time, and doing so could take water back towards the lake too.
On the other hand, people living in the delta (where the river meets the sea) of the Indus River were very happy. Throughout the year, this is the only time when they have sweet water from the river. Due to low water in the river (because there are a couple of dams built on the Indus), the sea has been encroaching upon the land. The city of Keti Bandar has been devoured by seawater up to 10 Miles, it used to be a bustling coastal city.
Mr. Ali Akbar’s family has been residing here for decades and they keep moving when water encroaches their land. Here, they have tried to stop the seawater through embankments but it keeps getting over it. When there was no dam on the river, there used to be 17 creeks but we are left with 2 creeks only. The Government has planted mangroves on a huge scale to stop this trend.
If we look at the map of Pakistan, different factors have amplified the impacts of floods from North to South. These include encroachment on waterways in the North, no intercepting dams to control drains & hill torrents in the middle, and lack of management of Manchar Lake as well as a poor drainage system disabling the rainwater from reaching the Indus River in the South. ”
Takeaways
As part of our research, our team conducted six interviews with community members and Government Officials in Sind Province. Of the people we interviewed, one was a government official, three were community members from Larkana and two were community members from Southern Punja. While all interviewees are from impacted regions, many were living in less impacted areas at the time of the flood, and so were able to mobilize resources and deliver them to more remote areas. We do not claim this small number of interviews is representative of all people impacted by the floods, however, their voices are crucial recountings of community experiences, especially in understanding the reality of the disaster response on the ground.
Preparedness
Both the community and the Govt. were not prepared for the 2022 flood due to several factors but the most important were the type and scale of the flood. There have been riverine floods in the past and the most devastating riverine flood was experienced back in 2010. Otherwise, it is an annual phenomenon during the Monsoon. Thus, people in proximity to rivers and canals have more awareness about it. There is an early warning system in place, the Govt. makes arrangements in advance and the people prone to flooding move to safer places. Both the community and the Govt. acknowledged that they had never witnessed destruction by rainstorms, hill torrents and then stagnant waters on such a great scale.
So, it is high time that the Govt. as well as the community should put their house in order, analyze the types and scales of expected climate carnage, and the weaknesses in current response and use indigenous wisdom coupled with modern knowledge & technology to deal with such events in future.
Collaboration Between Different Organizations & Groups of the Community
There was no formal collaboration among the individuals, groups of individuals and non-government organizations (NGOs) during the rescue and relief activities. Locals were connecting through social media and referring to the locations that had been taken care of and which still required immediate help.
Therefore, all those who were part of the activity should introspect and connect through vigorous networking. A well-coordinated and informed effort can be very effective in future disaster events thus saving a lot of energy and material for the rehabilitation phase later.
Community and the Government Collaboration
It has transpired that the community does not have faith in the Government and this situation is based on current and past experiences. In most of the calamity hit areas, there was no immediate Government response for 15 days (acknowledged by the Government too). This speaks volume of the capacity and the reach of the Government in such a situation. Even after the Government started showing up in the areas, there was no collaboration in rescue and relief activities. It must be kept in mind that unorganized individual groups (popped up during the calamity) had a lion’s share in the response. Most of these groups were not locals and did not have any clue about local dynamics. So, there were areas which got excessive aid (even people started selling the excessive aid on very cheap rates to meet other expenses) and there were settlements which got a meager amount of aid. Moreover, there were incidents of looting and mugging the aid trucks. So, informing about the right type of required aid, directing aid towards right areas and protecting the aid trucks & the workers was the least that the Government could do. The Government has acknowledged that there was a problem of lack of coordination with unorganized groups but it did coordinate with the NGOs through Provincial Emergency Response Centre.
There were two basic reasons behind this lack of coordination between the Government and the Community. First, there exists no local government in Pakistan. It is the Federal Government that has delegated most of the subject to the Provincial Governments. The Provincial Governments run the local administration through a colonial bureaucratic District Government system. So, literally, there are no public representatives on grassroots level. Second, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority runs its affairs during the disaster through these district governments and does not have a permanent presence there. So, there exists no connection between the PDMA and the public whatsoever. Therefore, Pakistan needs a robust local government which is empowered and independent in its decision/policy making and legislation. This is the only way to bridge the gap between the masses and the Government and make local public representatives accountable to the people after all. The local governments are in a better position to mobilize the public, keep record of vulnerable areas and populations and engage with any organized and unorganized within/without the area while keeping the indigenous knowledge and customs intact.
Communication and Early Warning
There exists an early warning system for riverine floods in Pakistan. This flood was a combination of rain-induced and riverine flood and the Sind Government itself had only a two-day advance warning about an unprecedented rain spell in Sind. There was a large-scale flood in Baluchistan Province (North-West of Sind) and hill torrents from Baluchistan as well as Southern Punjab also added to flooding in Sind. So, there was no early warning about the rain spells. In Baluchistan and Southern Punjab, there was no media coverage of the torrents and the Government only started ‘speaking’ about it when there was noise on social media. In hilly areas, the upstream people informed the downstream people about the expected hill torrent. While the people were clueless in plain areas of Sind. There were private dams of big Zamindars (landlords with thousands of acres) who directed water to other areas to save their own crops thus inundating villages at 2 am at night (Sind and Baluchistan are the provinces that have colonial legacies running through their veins like blood). The poor were caught off guard and lost their homes as well as land route connections with the rest of the province. Likewise, the Government breached some canals and lakes at several points to avoid large-scale devastation but did not inform the people who were prone to flooding, consequently.
Hence, the government should develop its capacity to not only foresee unprecedented weather patterns well in advance but also deploy mechanisms to disseminate information to the masses in an effective and timely manner. Pakistan has one of the highest cellular densities in the world and communication should not be a problem if it becomes a local phenomenon.
Government Assistance & Support
As the government had not expected a disaster of this scale, therefore, preparation was made for a routine flood. The Provincial Government had got the materials ready to provide for 80,000 families but ended up having 2 million families displaced. Therefore, there was no match or proportion between the aid and the affected people immediately. The government could not reach the people with relief goods until two weeks after the disaster. Moreover, it was beyond the capacity of the government to respond when 24 out of its 30 districts were declared calamity-hit and three major provincial highways connecting the province were under flood water on several locations. The Government amenity buildings (schools, hospitals, drainage stations, police stations, fire stations etc.) in flooded areas were also under water. The rural areas (which were mostly and severely hit) have a very little presence from the Government in routine. So, the government had neither presence nor immediate access to provide rescue and relief activities. The people who successfully got support from the government were either located in Government Establishment Relief Camps or had connections with influential locals or Govt. officials (allegedly). There were instances where people refused to accept Govt. support being too small and National Elected Representative telling people that he had nothing to offer.
It is true that the governments in Pakistan may not have the resources or wherewithal to deal with disasters on such a scale. After all, it is the Government’s responsibility to look after the people who have elected them. There is a lot of room in planning for disaster risk mitigation and effective management of available resources for disaster management. There is a requirement to ensure efficiency and transparency in the provision of aid during rescue & relief and rehabilitation phases. Government can engage third parties which may work independently of any political/official biases to ensure it. And it is high time for the Government to document its economy and keep data banks ready for informed decision-making. Pakistan has been running a very effective social security net program ‘’Ehsas Income” which pays to the destitute families through their female members monthly.
Challenges
As the flood was a combination of swelled rivers and rains, it rendered accessing the affected people by road almost impossible in the aftermath. The overall response from the community was very impressive but being outsiders, they did not know the area and were unable to access the cut off settlements. The second challenge for the community was safe passage to the affected areas and the third was lack of communication about which areas were catered for already and which still required help. As far as the Government is concerned, accessing the affected areas was the greatest challenge for itself too. The second challenge was drainage of stagnant waters from the affected areas because there was no drainage system in place.
The Government should analyze the reasons which augmented the severity of the disaster. It should incorporate resilience and adaptation measures in its development planning and take the local communities on board. It should especially focus on building drainage systems across the province on the right and left sides of the Indus River which may handle the excessive river and rainwater. Moreover, the Government should build intercept dams to get hold of hill torrents and use the water for agriculture when farmers face a shortage of water in the sowing season. The government should introduce building codes with an emphasis on climate resilience as per the local environment and historical wisdom.
What brought us here
Colonialism is the root cause of the current Anthropocene crisis. Pakistan (along with India & Bangladesh) have been ruled by the British in the past and remained a prey to British extractive policies leading to unequal ecological exchanges for more than hundred years till 1947. The local raw materials literally boosted the British Industrial Revolution and pushed the locals here to extreme poverty. The British created local Landlords (local faithful ruling elite with grants of huge tracts of land) and built irrigation systems based on canals from the rivers. These landlords were a source of political clout as well as huge land revenues for the colonial Government. These very landlords became the political elite of Pakistan after the British left thus creating a colonial legacy in Pakistan’s governance system. Pakistan faces a double jeopardy as it has been a victim of colonialism and is also facing an onslaught of neocolonialism. Pakistan’s currency took a nosedive due to its rising debt liabilities towards the international financial institutions last year. The country is facing a disproportionate share of the global climate crisis while its share to the causes of climate change is quite negligible. The Government had to face the unprecedented floods in 2022 along with the external debt crisis coupled with no climate reparations.
How Global Governance Weakens the Support System
Pakistan contributes less than 1% of the world’s greenhouse gases, but it is among the top 10 countries most affected by climate change, according to the Global Climate Risk Index. In other words, the ecological debt is not of its own making but is largely 'imported' from the developed world. This has given rise to the idea of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) - all states are responsible for addressing climate change but that responsibility should not be shared equally. The acknowledgment of ecological debt calls for a fundamental shift in restructuring global governance - industrialized countries are not only responsible for most of the emissions to date, but they are also more capable and better placed to take action to support vulnerable countries for climate-change-induced disaster prevention, response, and recovery.
CBDR sounds reasonable on paper but does not quite work in reality as richer countries continue to debate and evade historic responsibility. In 2020, 79% of primary energy in the US was supplied by oil, coal, and gas. Ten years prior to that, the number was 83%. Such a small reduction in a decade illustrates the reality of climate justice. To add to this, promises made towards climate financing are yet to be fulfilled. In 2009, rich nations pledged to channel US$ 100 billion each year to less-wealthy nations to fight climate change. While this was seen as an iconic gesture, Oxfam reports that only around 20% of that figure has materialized in recent years. Furthermore, global climate policy following the 2015 Paris regime has led to a reliance on technological solutions and market-based mechanisms, instead of on direct emission cuts and financial aids.
In this context, loss and damage funds are not just necessary but imperative for climate justice. While current climate financing mechanisms primarily focus on mitigation and adaptation, loss and damage funds would fill a critical gap by providing resources specifically for the harm beyond adaptation or mitigation. “The loss and damage fund is a response to climate injustice and climate debt, owed by the rich countries to the poor,” added Meena Raman, Head of Programmes at Third World Network.
November 30, at COP28, the Loss and Damage fund was formally adopted and Wealthy countries most responsible for the climate emergency have pledged over $700m after decades of negotiations. The United States contributed 17.5 million to the fund, less than a fifth of the United Arab Emirates’ contribution and 14 times less than the European Union’s.
It seems like a victory. However, estimates for the annual cost of the damage have varied from $100bn-$580bn. So far the total pledged is equivalent to less than 0.2% of the irreversible economic and non-economic losses developing countries are facing from global heating every year. In addition, the establishment of a fund does not necessarily translate in climate finance commitments, with the poor progress to deliver the promised US$100 billion in annual climate funding from wealthy nations at COP27 a case in point.
Yet, whether the pledged money comes as grants or loans and the timing remains unclear as few countries have released further details. Climate financing often comes in the form of loans and debts, which place an additional burden on already vulnerable economies. The exacerbating debt situation hinders their ability to invest in sustainable development and resilience-building measures. In the case of Pakistan, resources that could be allocated for developing sustainable infrastructure, enhancing agricultural resilience, or investing in renewable energy are instead diverted to debt servicing. This situation creates a paradox where the funds intended to aid in climate adaptation and mitigation end up limiting the capacity for these very activities. The Economic pressures and debt obligations again put global-south countries in the ecological unequal exchange.
Furthermore, the need for continuous borrowing to service existing debts has trapped Pakistan in a vicious cycle, diminishing the country’s financial autonomy. Pakistan, already grappling with a substantial external debt, has had to seek repeated bailouts from institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As of March 2023, Pakistan's external debt stood at over $126 billion, with significant portions attributed to multilateral and bilateral loans. Each new loan from entities like the IMF often comes with strict neoliberal conditionalities, forcing Pakistan to open itself to the global market, including removing all subsidies related to electricity, gas, and fuel, raising the interest rate, allowing the market to determine the exchange rate, and restructuring State-Owned-Enterprises.
IMF: History of Lending Commitments to Pakistan as of February 29, 2020
Data Source: IMFIn sum, neocolonialism forces the nations of the global South into continued cycles of exploitation, and grants morsels of relief under the requirement that they adopt the neoliberal capitalist economic structures of the West, creating a more ‘friendly’ environment for global North and corporate investment while weakening the state’s ability to care for its people. In this way, the world’s dominant financial institutions use neocolonialism and coercively export neoliberal capitalism to nations that are forced to decide between relief today or continued exploitation tomorrow. The result is that even nations who staunchly opposed the neoliberal, capitalist ideology of the colonial powers are eventually forced through financial and economic governance to adopt the neoliberal capitalist policies themselves. In this way, global North states and transnational corporations are able to continue to extract, consume, and pollute, leading to destruction, or the ‘entropy’ of the global South’s workers, reproductive labor, and ecosystems.
Conclusion
We have approached the 2022 floods in Pakistan from multiple angles, focusing our analysis on community and government responses to the disaster. We conducted a literature review to better understand the NGO, media, and academic analyses of the floods, leading us to notice a gap in the scholarship around the connection between this flood and broader systemic issues, especially the history of colonialism and neocolonialism in Pakistan. We then conducted interviews to understand people’s lived experiences of the floods and their perspectives on the main challenges and solutions. We then researched climate governance and the Loss and Damages fund, as well as Pakistan’s relationship with the IMF and global financial governance. These angles have led us to understand the root causes of Pakistan’s challenges in the 2022 floods, and helped us to understand their on-the-ground impact.
Our conclusions are as follows:
Cancel the Debt. Canceling the debt is a way to stop the cycle of colonialism. We heard in our interviews and learned through our research the ways in which Pakistan’s enormous debt prevents the country from being able to respond appropriately to disasters. End the debt and allow Pakistan to invest in themselves as country rather than paying global North debts and interest
Climate Reparations. Pakistan has contributed less than 1% of emissions to the global climate crisis yet faces some of the most extreme consequences. This ecological and climate debt means that the heavily polluting global North nations must pay climate reparations to nations like Pakistan who will bear the brunt of climate disasters.
Funding, not finance. Pakistan cannot take on any more debt from the IMF. The loss and damages fund must provide funds in the form of grants or reparations, not as loans.
Strengthen Local Governance. Community members shared a belief that federal and provincial governments cannot adequately respond to disasters like this, as they do not live in the communities and are not truly accountable to them. They also spoke about corruption, nepotism, and “red tapeism” as key barriers to expedient flood responses. Furthermore, the current system is an imported system from British Colonial rule, and many of the systems that favor elite landlords are still in place. Instead, community members advocated for stronger local governance where leaders live in and are from the community.
Photo Credit:
Photos from Mr. Gulam Yaseen, Mr. Umar Masood
Thank you to Mr. Salman Shah, Mr. Ghulam Yaseen, Mr. Umar Masood, Mr. Rizwan Ashraf, Mr. Abdul Rashid, and others for interviewing with us for this research.
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